As we head into August, the latest housing statistics from July 2025 are in, and they paint a clear picture of the Oakville market. Based on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) Home Price Index (HPI), conditions have solidified, favouring buyers across all major property types. A combination of softening prices compared to last year and increased inventory is giving homebuyers more choice and negotiation power than they've seen in a long time.
Let's break down the performance by property type, looking at both the year-over-year and month-over-month changes.
Overall Trend: Prices Soften from 2024 Highs
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides the clearest view of underlying price trends. The line chart shows that for most property types, the benchmark price in July 2025 is noticeably lower than it was in July 2024, indicating a market correction over the past 12 months. While monthly numbers can fluctuate, the year-over-year data reveals the broader story.
Two-Storey Detached Homes
This segment, often the heart of Oakville's family-oriented market, has seen a distinct cooling.
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Year-over-Year: The HPI for two-storey homes has decreased by approximately −4.0% since July 2024.
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Month-over-Month: Following the broader trend, prices dipped −3.4% from June 2025 to July 2025, a significant monthly drop.
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Market Conditions: The absorption rate now sits at 16.5%, which is slightly down from the previous month. This confirms a buyer's market, meaning there is approximately 6 months of available inventory. Sellers in this segment need to be competitive with their pricing and presentation.
One-Storey Detached Homes (Bungalows)
Bungalows experienced a surprising monthly bump, but the longer-term trend still aligns with the rest of the market.
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Year-over-Year: This property type saw a significant price reduction, with the HPI falling by approximately −6.8% compared to July 2024.
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Month-over-Month: In a slight deviation from the overall market, one-storey homes saw a modest price increase of +1.3% from June to July. This could be a statistical blip or a momentary surge in demand for this popular housing type, but it runs counter to the annual trend.
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Market Conditions: The absorption rate is identical to two-storey homes at 16.5%. This is also a solid buyer's market, indicating that despite the small monthly price gain, buyers still hold a strong advantage.
Townhomes
The townhome segment has experienced the most significant price adjustment over the past year, offering a key entry point for many buyers.
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Year-over-Year: Townhomes have seen the largest HPI decrease of all segments, falling by a substantial −10.8% since July 2024.
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Month-over-Month: The downward pressure continued in July, with prices dropping −5.3% compared to June 2025, the sharpest monthly decline among all property types.
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Market Conditions: A buyer's market remains firmly in place. Freehold townhomes have an absorption rate of 20.3%, while condo townhomes are at 17.6%. This supply level gives buyers ample room to negotiate.
Apartments
The apartment condo market has also shifted to favour buyers, with prices receding from last year's levels.
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Year-over-Year: The HPI for apartments has decreased by approximately −8.2% since July of last year.
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Month-over-Month: Prices for apartments softened by −2.8% between June and July 2025.
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Market Conditions: The absorption rate for apartments rose to 14.1%. While this is the tightest segment, it still represents a buyer's market (traditionally, anything below 20% for condos is considered a buyer's or balanced market leaning to buyers), with roughly 7 months of inventory available.
What This Means for You
For Buyers: This is the market you've been waiting for. With prices down from last year and inventory levels healthy across the board, you have more options and less competition. The pressure to make snap decisions has eased, allowing for more thorough due diligence and negotiation.
For Sellers: The key to success in this market is strategic pricing and impeccable presentation. With more homes to compete against, your property must stand out. Pricing your home in line with the current market data from the start is critical to attracting serious offers.
If you're considering making a move in Oakville, understanding these nuanced market conditions is crucial. Please feel free to reach out to discuss how this data impacts your specific real estate goals.
