The Oakville market in September 2026: the short answer
Oakville is a buyers' market in every segment. Absorption fell across the board in September 2026, with detached homes at 13.9%, freehold townhomes at 16.5%, condo townhomes at 20.6% and apartments at 12.8% — all well under the 30% threshold. Compared with August, benchmark prices fell 3.6% for bungalows, 0.4% for 2-storey detached homes and 1.8% for apartments, while townhomes rose 2.9%.
Oakville home prices by property type
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks the benchmark price of a typical home, not the average sale price, so it gives a cleaner read on value trends than averages, which swing with the mix of homes sold.
Property type | 1 month (Aug–Sep 2026) | 3 months (Jun–Sep) | 6 months (Mar–Sep) | 12 months (Sep 2025–Sep 2026) |
1-storey detached (bungalows) | -3.6% | -3.5% | -6.1% | -4.6% |
2-storey detached | -0.4% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -2.6% |
Townhouse | +2.9% | -2.9% | -2.7% | -8.4% |
Apartment | -1.8% | -2.1% | -3.4% | -6.2% |
Source: MLS® Home Price Index, PropTx MLS® System (TRREB), Oakville.
Market conditions: absorption rates
The absorption rate indicates how fast homes are selling. It is calculated as homes sold divided by homes currently listed. Under 30% is a buyers' market, 30% to 60% is balanced, and over 60% is a sellers' market.
Segment | September 2026 | August 2026 | Market |
Detached (all) | 13.9% | 19.3% | Buyers' market |
Freehold townhomes | 16.5% | 23.3% | Buyers' market |
Condo townhomes | 20.6% | 31.6% | Buyers' market (down from balanced) |
Apartments | 12.8% | 13.9% | Buyers' market |
Source: Martin Group analysis of TRREB Market Watch data, Oakville, September 2026.
Every segment moved down in September, and condo townhomes made the largest move of all — from 31.6% to 20.6%, dropping out of balanced territory and into a buyers' market. That is the single clearest signal in this month's data.
Bungalows (1-storey detached)
Bungalow benchmark prices fell 3.6% from August, the steepest monthly decline of any segment, and are down 6.1% over six months and 4.6% year over year. The absorption rate for detached homes is reported as one figure covering both bungalows and 2-storeys, and it fell from 19.3% to 13.9%.
- For buyers: Bungalows are a favourite with downsizers and buyers planning to age in place. Prices are lower, inventory is moving slowly, and there is real room to negotiate.
- For sellers: Pricing to today's benchmark is what gets a bungalow sold. Last spring's comparables are no longer the market.
2-storey detached homes
Two-storey homes were the most resilient segment this month, easing just 0.4% from August. Over twelve months they are down 2.6%, the smallest annual decline of the four segments. They share the same 13.9% detached absorption rate, so even the most stable segment on price is seeing slow turnover.
- For buyers: Family neighbourhoods that are normally competitive are not competitive right now. Conditions, timelines and price all have room to move.
- For sellers: Values have held up better here than anywhere else in Oakville. Presentation and accurate pricing matter more than waiting for a better month.
Townhomes
Townhomes were the only segment to rise in September, up 2.9% from August. Read that figure with care: townhouse prices are still 8.4% below September 2025 — the steepest annual decline of any Oakville segment — and are down over three and six months as well. One strong month is a short-term move, not a turning point. Demand tells the clearer story: freehold townhome absorption fell from 23.3% to 16.5%, and condo townhomes dropped from 31.6% to 20.6%.
- For buyers: Townhomes are where prices have corrected most over the past year, and demand has cooled further. This is the segment with the widest gap between last year's pricing and today's.
- For sellers: The monthly price uptick is not a demand signal. Competition for buyers is stronger than it was in August, particularly for condo townhomes.
Apartments
Apartment prices slipped 1.8% from August and are 6.2% lower than a year ago. Absorption edged down from 13.9% to 12.8%, the lowest reading of any Oakville segment.
- For buyers: First-time buyers and downsizers have the most leverage here of any segment: more choice, more time and more room to negotiate.
- For sellers: Competitive pricing and strong presentation from day one are essential. Apartments that are priced to last month's expectations will sit.
Interest rates: what the Bank of Canada's hold means for Oakville
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026. The rate has been unchanged at every decision since the last cut in October 2025. The next announcement is October 28, 2026.
- For buyers: Borrowing costs have been stable for almost a year, which makes it easier to plan a purchase and lock in a pre-approval with confidence.
- For sellers: Steady rates help keep qualified buyers in the market, but sellers shouldn't count on a rate cut to lift demand in the short term.
- For homeowners renewing: With the policy rate well below its 2023–2024 peak, a renewal is a sensible moment to review whether moving up or right-sizing now fits your plans.
What this means in Oakville neighbourhoods
City-wide numbers are a starting point, but every Oakville neighbourhood moves at its own pace.
- Old Oakville and Bronte: Lakeside and heritage streets draw buyers for reasons the index does not capture. In a buyers' market, a well-prepared home still finds its buyer while an optimistically priced one sits.
- Glen Abbey and River Oaks: These established family communities are anchored by 2-storey detached homes, the segment that has held its value best over the past year.
- West Oak Trails and College Park: Townhome-heavy pockets where the cooling in both freehold and condo townhome demand is most relevant to anyone weighing a move.
- Falgarwood: Known for bungalows and mature lots, this is the kind of area where softening bungalow values matter most to downsizers and move-up buyers alike.
If you want to know how your own street is performing rather than the city as a whole, that is a conversation worth having.
Key takeaways
- Oakville is a buyers' market in all four segments — no segment is balanced or favouring sellers.
- Condo townhomes made the largest move, falling from 31.6% to 20.6% absorption and out of balanced territory.
- Bungalows saw the steepest monthly price decline (-3.6%) and the deepest six-month decline (-6.1%).
- Two-storey detached homes held up best, down just 0.4% in the month and 2.6% over twelve months.
- Townhomes rose 2.9% in September but remain 8.4% below last year, the steepest annual decline of any segment.
- Interest rates are steady at 2.25%, with the next Bank of Canada decision on October 28, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is it a buyers' or sellers' market in Oakville right now?
As of September 2026, Oakville is a buyers' market in every segment. Detached homes sit at 13.9% absorption, freehold townhomes at 16.5%, condo townhomes at 20.6% and apartments at 12.8% — all below the 30% threshold that marks a balanced market.
Are Oakville home prices going down?
Benchmark prices dipped in September for bungalows (-3.6%), 2-storey homes (-0.4%) and apartments (-1.8%), while townhomes rose 2.9%. Year over year, all four segments are lower, by 2.6% to 8.4%.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Oakville?
For many buyers, this is the strongest negotiating position in some time. Prices are below last year's levels across every segment, absorption is low, and interest rates have held steady at 2.25% since October 2025. The right timing still depends on your budget, property type and neighbourhood.
Should I sell my Oakville home now or wait?
Demand softened across every segment in September, so pricing and preparation matter more than they did a few months ago. Two-storey detached homes have held their value best. A local pricing analysis will show how your home compares with recent sales on your street.
About the author
Cory Martin is Broker and Co-Founder of Martin Group, with more than 25 years of experience in the Oakville and Burlington real estate markets. He holds an Honours BMOS and the Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) designation. Martin Group has performed in the Top 1% by TRREB MLS® sales volume every year since 2008.
Thinking of buying or selling in Oakville?
City-wide statistics tell part of the story. What matters most is how your home, your street and your neighbourhood are performing right now. Whether you're weighing a move, planning to downsize or looking for the right time to buy, Martin Group will give you a clear, data-driven picture of your options and a strategy built around your goals.
Contact Martin Group today for a no-obligation conversation about your Oakville real estate plans.
- Call: 905-338-2083
- Email: [email protected]
- Visit: themartingroup.ca
Current Oakville figures are kept up to date at themartingroup.ca/oakville-market-update.
Profit from our experience.
Sources
- MLS® Home Price Index, PropTx MLS® System (TRREB): Oakville benchmark price changes by property type, September 2026. https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/
- Martin Group analysis of TRREB Market Watch data: Oakville absorption rates by segment, September 2026.
- Bank of Canada: policy interest rate. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/
- Bank of Canada: 2026 schedule for policy interest rate announcements. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/
