Burlington Housing Market Update: New Data Shows Price Declines Persist, But Bank of Canada Cuts Signal a Shift

The newly released Housing Price Index (HPI) data for October 2025, coupled with the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate action, paints a nuanced picture of the Burlington market. While the HPI confirms that prices across all major housing types continued their downward trend last month, key indicators of demand are firming up, suggesting we may be nearing a bottom.

Here is a breakdown of the market conditions and what they mean for you, our valued clients.

1. The Price Perspective: Market Cooling Continues

The HPI data confirms that property values in Burlington have been significantly impacted over the last year, especially following the market peak seen around the start of 2025.

Month-over-Month (September 2025 to October 2025)

All four key housing categories saw a decline in the last month, indicating that the cooling trend observed since the spring continued through October:

Key Takeaway: Townhouses experienced the steepest monthly price drop, while 2-Storey Detached homes showed the most resilience, with only a marginal decline.

Year-over-Year (October 2024 to October 2025)

The 12-month data highlights the depth of the recent market correction:

Key Takeaway: Apartments and 1-Storey Detached homes have seen the largest price corrections over the past year, offering a potential entry point for budget-conscious buyers and first-time homeowners.

2. Absorption Rate: Demand is Building

While prices are falling, a critical underlying indicator—the Absorption Rate (the ratio of sales to active listings)—suggests demand is gradually catching up with supply.

Absorption Rate Definitions: 0-30% (Buyer's Market), 30-60% (Balanced Market), 60%+ (Seller's Market).

Key Takeaway: The entire market is showing signs of tightening, with demand strengthening across the board. Notably, Freehold Townhomes have officially exited the Buyer's Market territory and entered a Balanced Market (30.7%). This means that buyers in the Townhome category are facing less inventory and more competition than they were just a month ago.

3. The Monetary Policy Factor: BoC Cuts Mortgage Costs

The most significant external news impacting the market is the recent action by the Bank of Canada (BoC).

On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This was the second consecutive rate reduction and has lowered the key rate to the low end of its neutral range.

• Impact on Variable Mortgages: This cut provided immediate relief to holders of variable-rate mortgages, lowering their monthly payments or directing more funds toward their principal.

• Impact on Affordability: Lower interest rates boost the qualifying power for new buyers. This rate relief is a major factor encouraging prospective buyers—who have been sitting on the sidelines due to affordability and uncertainty—to re-enter the market. The timing of this cut perfectly coincides with the subtle strengthening of demand reflected in Burlington's rising absorption rates.

Your Strategy: Navigating the End-of-Year Market

Advice for Buyers

The current environment is a strategic opportunity. While the market is still technically a Buyer's Market for most segments, price momentum is easing, and the BoC is providing a much-needed affordability boost.

• Maximum Leverage: You have the most negotiating power for Apartments and 1-Storey Detached homes, which have seen the largest price decreases.

• Act Now for Townhomes: If you are interested in a Townhome, the window of maximum leverage is closing, as this segment has just tipped into a Balanced Market. Competition is increasing.

• Use the Lower Rate: The reduced Bank of Canada rate allows you to qualify for a larger mortgage amount or reduce your overall carrying costs. This is the moment to combine lower prices with lower borrowing costs.

Advice for Sellers

While the headline price drops may cause concern, the increase in absorption rates is positive. Buyers are re-engaging, stimulated by the recent rate cuts.

• Price Strategically: Buyers are highly price-sensitive after watching values fall. Overpricing in this environment will lead to long days on market and likely a deeper price reduction later. Price your home accurately to capture the newly energized buyer pool before inventory rises.

• Townhome Advantage: If you are selling a Townhome, you are in the strongest position relative to other housing types right now, operating in a more Balanced Market. Expect timely offers if your listing is presented well.

• Harness New Demand: The influx of buyers qualifying for better rates creates a perfect opportunity to move your property before the next wave of inventory potentially hits the market in the new year.

If you are considering a move in Burlington, let's connect to create a tailored strategy that takes advantage of these unique market conditions. Contact me today to discuss your next steps.