44% Sales Surge Signals a Return to Seller Power in GTA for 2025

A decisive shift back to a seller’s market in the Greater Toronto Area is not yet confirmed, but the October sales surge signals a tightening of conditions, suggesting the market is rebalancing and will likely favour sellers in the spring of 2025 across key GTA hubs like Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, and Mississauga.

The Great Rebalancing: GTA Real Estate Shift Accelerates

The real estate narrative in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has pivoted sharply. After a prolonged period where high-interest rates and economic uncertainty gave buyers the upper hand, October's market data delivered a clear signal: the dormant energy of buyers is awakening.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported a robust 44.4% year-over-year jump in home sales in October 2024, with 6,658 transactions across the GTA. For many, this seismic shift raises the million-dollar question: Are sellers especially those with luxury listings in desirable areas like Oakville and Burlington about to regain control?

The short answer is: The market is moving from balanced toward a seller's advantage, but the transition will be gradual.

While the sales increase is dramatic, the GTA market is still in a delicate rebalancing act. This transition offers crucial opportunities and requires different strategies for every participant whether you are a buyer, seller, or investor in Hamilton, Mississauga, or the surrounding real estate areas.

The Key October Metrics: Why the Market is Tightening

The most compelling evidence of a market shift isn't just the raw sales number; it’s the ratio between supply and demand.

(Source: TRREB, October 2024 Market Watch)

The surge in sales far outpacing the increase in new listings (44.4% vs. 4.3%) creates a tighter market. Essentially, buyers are aggressively absorbing inventory at a rate that sellers are not replenishing, which is the foundational dynamic that leads to competition and price appreciation.

For Sellers: Leverage and Strategic Pricing

If you are a seller in the GTA especially one with a high-value property, this is the most encouraging news in months. The period of significant buyer leverage is fading.

1. Regaining Negotiation Power: The fact that sales are rising much faster than listings means the days of lowball offers are ending. Properties that are correctly priced and professionally marketed will see multiple interested parties, especially in sought-after freehold segments like detached homes in Oakville and high-demand townhouses in Mississauga.

2. The Luxury Listing Advantage: The demand for low-rise homes (detached, semi-detached) and townhouses in the 905 regions (including Burlington and Hamilton) often leads the recovery. As a luxury listing agent at Martin Group, our advice is to capitalize on this rising tide by ensuring your property presentation is impeccable.

3. Future Outlook: According to TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer, while there is still current inventory, "as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025." This suggests that delaying your listing until early spring could yield even stronger results, but only if demand continues this trajectory.

For Buyers: The Window is Closing

For buyers in the GTA, the current market presents a critical moment: the maximum affordability window of 2024 is closing.

• The Affordability Driver: The primary driver for the October sales surge is improved affordability, which has been unlocked by a combination of lower borrowing costs (rate cuts) and prices that have largely stabilized, but not yet rebounded fully. You now have lower carrying costs than you did six months ago, combined with more stable pricing.

• The Urgency Factor: If you have been waiting for the "bottom," the October data suggests you may have missed it, or you are watching it slip away right now. As pent-up demand returns, competition will only intensify. This is a crucial time to secure a mortgage pre-approval and act decisively.

• Targeting Value: While prices have firmed up generally, there is still value to be found. For instance, while detached home prices in the Toronto core saw a strong bump, the average selling price of detached homes in the broader 905 area was nearly flat year-over-year. This underscores the importance of working with an experienced real estate agent who can pinpoint value in specific neighbourhoods, from the waterfront properties in Burlington to the family-friendly streets of Hamilton.

For Investors: A Return to the Market

The tightening market conditions are a welcome development for investors.

1. Capital Appreciation is Back: A return to a seller-favoured market signals the potential for future capital appreciation, which had been stagnant. This encourages long-term investors to hold rather than sell for a loss.

2. Condo Opportunities: Though not immune to the recovery, the condo market—especially in the downtown core of the GTA—still faces elevated inventory. This segment may continue to offer value for investors looking for discounted entry points, but the eventual recovery in this space will be driven by continued population growth and the future direction of interest rates.

3. Rental Stability: Coupled with strong rental demand and low vacancy rates, the rebalancing of the sales market provides a stronger hedge for buy-and-hold investors. As rates stabilize, the financial model for multi-unit properties in the GTA looks increasingly attractive.

FAQ: Your Quick Guide to the Shifting GTA Market

Q1: Will the GTA market return to a bidding war frenzy in 2025?

A: While the market is accelerating, it is not expected to return to the frenzy of 2021–2022. Inventory levels are elevated compared to those years, which will act as a buffer to keep price growth moderate for the near term. We expect a strong, competitive spring market, but likely a more sustainable and balanced one than the peak.

Q2: Is it better to list my Oakville luxury listing now or wait until spring?

A: If your property is turn-key and priced strategically, listing now captures the surge in demand before the typical spring rush brings more competing inventory. The data shows buyers are active right now. Waiting until spring could mean slightly higher prices, but also significantly more competition. Consult with a Martin Group luxury listing agent to run a detailed comparative market analysis for your specific neighbourhood in Oakville or Burlington.

Q3: How do interest rate cuts affect the competition among buyers?

A: Interest rate cuts directly improve purchasing power, allowing more prospective buyers who were previously "priced out" to re-enter the market. The result is a larger pool of potential buyers for every listing, which directly increases competition and puts upward pressure on prices. The current activity is a direct response to the Bank of Canada's recent rate decisions.

Ready to Make Your Move?

The shifting dynamics in the GTA real estate market from Hamilton and Mississauga to Oakville and Burlington require precise, data-driven advice. As a seller, you have a crucial window to capitalize on renewed demand. As a buyer, your time to secure better affordability is rapidly shrinking.

Don't navigate this complex transition alone. The Martin Group has the localized expertise and strategic approach needed to ensure you maximize your outcome. Whether you’re preparing a luxury listing or seeking an investment property, let us be your trusted real estate agent in the Greater Toronto Area.

Contact the Martin Group today for a private, strategic consultation on your 2025 real estate goals.