Market Inflection Point: The Burlington Housing Market Shifts from Correction to Opportunity

A Martin Group Client Update – Data Released October 1st, 2025

The latest Housing Price Index (HPI) and inventory data, covering performance through September 2025, reveal a critical inflection point in the Burlington housing market. After a prolonged period of price correction driven by restrictive monetary policy, the Bank of Canada’s recent pivot has set the stage for stabilization.

For both buyers and sellers in Burlington, understanding the precise, segment-specific data from Detached homes to Apartments is essential to navigating what is currently a definitive Buyer’s Market.

1. The Policy Pivot: Lower Rates Create a Stabilization Floor

The housing market’s current dynamics are inseparable from the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest monetary policy decision.

On September 17, 2025, the BoC cut its benchmark overnight policy rate to 2.50%, immediately dropping the prime rate to 4.7%. This move signals a commitment to monetary easing that analysts expect will continue, with the policy rate potentially decreasing further by year-end.  

This policy shift has three immediate effects that empower buyers and underpin the market:

Relief for Borrowers: Variable-rate holders benefit instantly, and market sentiment improves overall.  

1. Affordable Financing: Competitive 5-year fixed mortgage rates are now available in the mid-3% range, making borrowing significantly more affordable than last year.  

2. Stress Test Improvement: Lower contract mortgage rates automatically improve qualification under the B-20 stress test, allowing buyers to secure larger mortgage amounts and bringing sidelined demand back to the market.  

This policy pivot acts as a crucial "stabilization floor," suggesting that the severe month-over-month price declines seen recently may slow down as buyer confidence returns.

2. Deep Dive: Why Burlington is a Buyer's Market

The most powerful metric for understanding market leverage is the absorption rate (AR), which measures how quickly inventory is selling. An AR between 0% and 30% indicates a strong Buyer’s Market, granting maximum negotiation power to the purchaser.

Currently, every category in Burlington is firmly classified as a Buyer’s Market, reflecting significant inventory pressures:

The lowest absorption rates seen in Apartments and Condo Townhomes translate directly into maximum negotiation leverage for buyers interested in high-density property types. While the Detached segment is also a Buyer’s Market (26.9%), it demonstrates the highest comparative underlying demand, positioning it closer to a balanced environment than the condo sector.

3. Price Performance: The Townhome Segment Leads the Recovery

The Housing Price Index (HPI) data confirms the extent of the market correction over the last year, but the month-over-month (MoM) data provides the most encouraging signal of near-term stabilization.

A. Year-over-Year (YoY) Price Correction (Sept 2024–Sept 2025)

Over the past 12 months, price decompression was significant across the board [Image 1]:

• Apartments recorded the steepest decline at -10.8%.

• Detached Homes (1- and 2-Storey) fell uniformly by approximately -9.5%.

• Townhomes showed the greatest resilience, correcting by a moderate -4.2%.

B. Month-over-Month (MoM) Volatility (Aug 2025–Sept 2025)

While Detached homes (-2.2% to -2.9%) and Apartments (-3.4%) continued their decline MoM, the Townhome segment posted a crucial and market-defining increase:

• Townhomes rose by +3.6% MoM [Image 2].

This positive movement in Townhomes is significant. It suggests that buyers, fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, are re-entering the market and finding the sweet spot between affordability and the preference for ground-oriented housing. This segment appears to be establishing the market floor, implying it may exit the Buyer’s Market classification sooner than others.

4. Regional Context: Burlington Shows Comparative Resilience

When compared to its high-value neighbor, Oakville, Burlington's market is demonstrating comparative strength.  

Oakville's overall Average Sold Price experienced a steeper year-over-year decline of -11.7% in September 2025. This difference is often attributed to Oakville’s larger luxury component, which is typically more volatile in a tightening lending environment. While both markets share significant inventory stress. Oakville’s apartment absorption rate was as low as 12.1% in August Burlington’s slightly more moderate correction highlights its unique demand profile in the western GTA corridor.  

Strategic Guidance for Martin Group Clients

The current environment is not just a correction; it is a time of opportunity. Our guidance is tailored to leverage the policy shift and market inventory.

For Buyers: Maximize Your Leverage Now

• Target Inventory-Rich Segments: Buyers seeking maximum negotiation power should focus on Apartments (15.3% AR) and Condo Townhomes (16.1% AR), where high inventory yields the lowest transaction liquidity for sellers.

• Secure Financing: Lock in competitive mid-3% fixed mortgage rates while home prices are still decompressing to maximize your purchasing power before pent-up demand returns.  

• Timing is Key for Detached: For Detached properties, the current window offers the best blend of price correction (~-9.5% YoY) and improving financing before the full impact of lower rates stabilizes the market in 2026.  

For Sellers: Price Proactively and Strategically

• Price to Compete: With MoM HPI declining across most categories, aspirational pricing will lead to prolonged Days on Market (DOM) and deeper cuts later. Proactive, realistic pricing is essential to secure a transaction quickly.

• Leverage the Townhome Advantage: Sellers of Townhomes are in the best position. Promote the segment’s unique MoM price increase of +3.6% to buyers as evidence that demand is returning and your property type is leading the market stabilization.

• Focus on Presentation: In a Buyer’s Market defined by high inventory, impeccable staging and professional presentation are non-negotiable tools to ensure your listing captures the limited pool of actively engaged purchasers.