The January 2026 data indicates a strategic "reset" in the Burlington market. Following the Bank of Canada’s January 28th decision to hold interest rates at 2.25%, we are seeing a divergence: detached homes have eased into a more accessible Balanced Market at a 25.8% absorption rate, while condo townhomes are gaining momentum, rising to 23.4%. This suggests that while the "frenzy" has cooled in the luxury and detached segments, entry-level buyers are actively re-entering the market to capitalize on stabilized borrowing costs.
The Deep Dive
The statistics released on February 2nd reveal a nuanced landscape for Burlington homeowners. Detached homes remain the primary driver of value growth, with 1-storey models seeing a 4.1% HPI increase and 2-storey models up 3%. However, the pace of sales has moderated slightly, with the absorption rate dipping to 25.8% (down from 28.4% in December). For buyers, this 2.6% drop represents a "breathing room" window more selection and less pressure to waive conditions, even as the underlying asset value continues to appreciate.
The real story of January, however, is the shift in the townhome and apartment sectors. Condo townhomes saw a notable jump in demand, with the absorption rate climbing to 23.4% from a quiet 16.5% in December. This is likely a direct result of the Bank of Canada's rate hold; buyers who were sidelined by volatility now feel confident in the 2.25% environment. Conversely, Freehold townhomes (27.3%) and Apartments (7.6%) have seen significant drops in absorption, signaling that these segments are currently the most "buyer-friendly" areas of the Halton market.
Local Nuance
In Burlington, location dictates the "feel" of these numbers. In Shoreacres and Roseland, the slight dip in detached absorption is actually a win for families looking to move into these premium school catchments without the 10-buyer bidding wars of years past. Meanwhile, the spike in condo townhome activity is most visible in The Orchards and Millcroft, where entry-level luxury remains a top priority for young professionals. If you are looking at the apartment market in Central Burlington or near the Elizabeth Gardens waterfront, the low 7.6% absorption rate suggests you have maximum leverage to negotiate on price and closing dates. Throughout the Halton Region, the consensus is that Rose and Central are seeing a shift toward a balanced, healthy market that favors those with a long-term strategy rather than speculators.
January 2026 Market Highlights
-
1-Storey Detached: The HPI leader with a 4.1% gain.
-
Detached Market: Now a Balanced Market at 25.8% absorption (down from 28.4%).
-
Condo Townhomes: Gaining heat at 23.4% absorption (up from 16.5% in December).
-
Freehold Townhomes: Buyer-favorable at 27.3% absorption (down from 54.5%).
-
Apartments: High inventory advantage with only 7.6% absorption.
-
BOC Holding Firm: The January 28th hold at 2.25% provides the most stable financing environment in three years.
Navigating a market that is simultaneously cooling in some sectors and heating up in others requires a partner who lives and breathes these streets. Whether you are looking to sell a detached home in Millcroft or buy your first condo in The Orchards, we provide the data-driven edge you need to succeed.
Contact Martin Group today to discuss how these January stats impact your property's value in today's market.
"Profit from our experience."
